On 9 December 2025 BloombergNEF (BNEF) published its annual survey of lithium-ion battery prices. The average pack (a battery pack made up of cells, casing and electronics) cost $108 per kWh: 8% less than a year earlier and 93% less than in 2010, in real terms 1,2 M. For the first time the cheapest packs were those for stationary energy storage systems, at $70 per kWh 1 H.
Raw materials were by then already getting dearer. Between October 2025 and January 2026 lithium carbonate in China rose by 147%, and storage cells rose by 22% by April 2026 3,4 M. By the end of October 2026 lithium had fallen again, to 98,000 yuan a tonne 5 M, but a price that only falls is no longer the rule. For a home or business owner the more important question is different: what the whole installed system costs and whether it gets through the winter.
Batteries have become 14 times cheaper and panels almost ten times, and an off-grid house near Kyiv now costs as much as a car, not a second house. But a battery moves energy from day to night, not from summer to winter: December has to be paid for with panels that are surplus in summer.
In brief
- Batteries. The pack fell from about $1,474 per kWh in 2010 to $108 in 2025 (in 2025 prices), thanks to LFP chemistry and factory overcapacity: more than 4 TWh of capacity against 1.6 TWh of demand (our comparison of IEA and Benchmark data) 2,6,7 L.
- Grid. In 2025 more than 100 GW of storage was installed worldwide; a turnkey system cost $73 per kWh in China, $177 in Europe and $219 in the US 8,9 M.
- Business. A megawatt-hour of commercial storage in 2010–2011 cost about $1.45m installed (US) 10 H; in 2025 the average was €346,000 for a ready-made package excluding VAT (Germany) 11 M.
- Home. A kilowatt-hour of usable capacity in a German home battery: about €2,500 in 2013 (in 2022 prices) and about €410 in 2026 12,13 M. In Ukraine a 10 kWh LFP battery sells for $212–238 per kWh 14 M.
- Solar. The module fell by 89% in real terms; a turnkey roof in Germany by 45–67% in nominal euros; the modules’ share of the roof price fell from 63% to 30% 15,16,17 M.
- A 150 m² house. An off-grid system covering 99% of needs near Kyiv: 27 kW of panels and 55 kWh of batteries for $23,000; at 2010 prices, $170,000 in 2026 dollars. December requires at least 3.4 times more panels than the annual average L.
- Ukraine. Battery imports in January–May 2026 ($1.47bn) equal the whole of 2025 18 M. Batteries are bought as backup for outages; they do not pay back on the tariff spread (our calculation) L.
01 · ScaleWhat has changed since 2010: the battery is 14 times cheaper, and storage has become the cheapest segment
Battery prices here are pack prices unless stated otherwise. A pack consists of cells, casing, and control and cooling systems; cells account for about 80% of its price 19 H. An installed system also includes an inverter, mounting, installation and connection. These levels cannot be mixed: in 2026 they differ several-fold.
The BNEF price series begins in 2010. The volume-weighted average pack price, in 2025 dollars, fell from about $1,474 to $108 per kWh 2 M. The fall was uneven: in the reconstructed series the biggest drop in a single year was in 2015, about −35% 2 M; in 2022 the price rose for the first time, by 7%, because of the jump in lithium prices, and in 2024 it fell by 20% 20,21 H. Demand for lithium-ion batteries reached 1.59 TWh in 2025, three-quarters of it for electric vehicles 7 M.
In 2025 prices diverged by segment. Packs for storage systems cost $70 per kWh, for electric vehicles $99. LFP (lithium iron phosphate) packs averaged $81, NMC (nickel manganese cobalt) $128. In China the average price is $84; in North America packs are 44% dearer, in Europe 56% 1 H. Chemistry explains only part of the gap: storage packs are $11 cheaper even than the average LFP pack. The rest is most likely due to a simpler format and large identical orders (our interpretation) L.
02 · Before 20101991–2010: solar went through its curve 15 years before batteries
Sony began selling the first lithium-ion cells in 1991, for camcorders. A kilowatt-hour then cost about $9,200 in 2024 prices, $6,300 in 1995 and $551 in 2010 22 M. According to Ziegler and Trancik (2021), from 1992 to 2016 cells fell in price by an average of 13% a year, roughly 20% with each doubling of the market 23 H. A solar module cost $99.60 per watt in 1976, $8.54 in 1995 and $2.51 in 2010 (in 2025 prices) 15 M.
In the 2000s both curves stalled. Polysilicon was scarce: in March 2008 it cost $475 per kg, and modules held at $4.7–5.2 per watt for several years 24 M. Cells cost $656–688 per kWh in 2006–2008 and $613 in 2009 22 M. Once the large Chinese factories started up, modules fell by 35% in 2009 and by a further 20% in 2010, to $2.1 per watt in the dollars of the time 25 H.
Energy storage then meant pumped hydro: in the mid-2010s it accounted for more than 99% of global capacity 26 H. All US grid batteries in 2010 totalled 59 MW 27 M. An off-grid house ran on lead-acid batteries, which withstood from a few hundred to about a thousand deep cycles and were usually discharged only by half 28,29 M. An off-grid solar system cost $5.5–8 per watt, twice as much as a grid-connected one, mainly because of the batteries 30 H.
03 · Events2010–2026: from the first Nissan Leaf to blackouts in Kyiv
In the first five years electric vehicles drove the fall in prices. Grid and home storage followed, and from 2022 came the jump in lithium prices, trade restrictions and the war in Ukraine. The filter above the timeline shows each line separately.
04 · CausesWhy batteries got cheaper: LFP chemistry, Chinese factories and overcapacity. And why 2026 broke the line
The first cause is chemistry. LFP cells contain no nickel or cobalt, are cheaper to make and last longer. In a Sandia test, small LFP cells would, by extrapolation, lose 20% of their capacity after 2,500–9,000 full cycles, and NMC cells after 200–2,500 31 M. The LFP share of electric-vehicle batteries rose from 29% in 2022 to more than 55% in 2025, and in new storage systems to more than 90% 6,32 H. In 2023 LFP cells cost less than $100 per kWh for the first time 33 H.
The second cause is scale and surplus. At the end of 2025 the world’s factories could produce more than 4 TWh of cells a year, more than 80% of that capacity in China, as are about 85% of cathode and more than 90% of anode material production 6 H. Demand for all lithium-ion batteries was 1.59 TWh 7 M: capacity exceeds it by 2–2.5 times depending on the demand estimate (our calculation) L. BNEF names Chinese overcapacity and competition as the main reasons for the fall in prices in 2025 1 H. The market is concentrated: CATL and BYD supplied 55.6% of electric-vehicle batteries 34 M.
Metals matter less than they seem. In 2021–2022 lithium rose eightfold in price 35 H, while the average pack rose by only 7% in 2022, after falling by 6% in 2021 20 H. When lithium rose by 147% between October 2025 and January 2026, the estimated cost of an LFP cell for storage rose by 31.6% 36 M.
2026 showed that prices do not necessarily fall every year. Cell prices for storage systems rose from 0.300 yuan per watt-hour at the end of October 2025 to 0.365 in April 2026 4 M. The average price in a China Huadian framework tender rose by 10.7%, but the 2026 tender required cells of 314 Ah or more and a five-year warranty, so the comparison with 2025 is approximate 37 M. From 1 April 2026 China cut the export VAT rebate on batteries from 9% to 6% and will abolish it from 2027 38 M, so Chinese batteries will become more expensive for importers.
Demand has changed too. More than 20m electric vehicles were sold in 2025, but sales in the first quarter of 2026 were 8% lower than a year earlier 6 H. Demand for batteries for storage systems grew by 51% in 2025, and for electric vehicles by about 26% (our calculation based on Benchmark’s shares) 7 M. Sodium-ion batteries still account for about 1% of capacity 32 H, although, according to press reports, CATL signed a contract in April 2026 for 60 GWh of such batteries for storage systems 39 M.
05 · GridThe battery became a power plant: more than 100 GW of storage added in 2025, and solar with a battery competes with gas
In 2017 the world’s largest storage system was Australia’s Hornsdale, at 100 MW / 129 MWh 40 M. In 2025 the world added 106 GW of storage according to Wood Mackenzie 8 H and 112 GW / 307 GWh according to BNEF, 48% more than a year earlier; China accounted for 54% and the United States for 16% 41 M. In 2016 each gigawatt of new storage was matched by 56 GW of new solar plants; in 2025 by only 6 42 M.
According to IRENA, an installed grid-scale battery fell in price from $2,571 per kWh in 2010 to $192 in 2024, a drop of 93% (in 2024 dollars) 43 H. In BNEF’s survey, a turnkey system in 2025 without grid connection and construction work cost $117 per kWh: $73 in China, $177 in Europe, $219 in the United States 9 M. Ember, as relayed by ESS News, puts a large project outside China and the United States, including grid connection, at about $125 per kWh; the methodologies of these estimates differ 44 M.
Batteries already work as an evening power plant: at 19:00 on 29 March 2026 California’s batteries delivered 12,293 MW, about 44% of the state’s evening demand (a record at the time, according to Grid Status) 45 M. Germany, the Netherlands and Spain each had 570–600 hours of negative prices in 2025 46 M: a battery charges in those hours and sells the power in the evening.
Whether solar with a battery is cheaper than a new gas plant depends on location. According to BNEF, electricity from a new combined-cycle gas plant cost on average $102 per MWh in 2025, the highest on record, while solar with storage in a single project cost $57 47 M. According to IRENA, round-the-clock solar with a battery at the best sites costs $54–82 48 M. But according to Ember, in Las Vegas solar with a battery covers 97% of a constant load at $104 per MWh, while in Birmingham in Britain it covers only 62% 49,50 H.
In the United States storage is getting more expensive: according to Lazard, storage in a four-hour system in 2026 costs $210–292 per MWh, 39% more than in 2020, because of tariffs on Chinese cells 51 H. Equipment for gas plants is getting more expensive faster: Wood Mackenzie expects gas turbines to cost 195% more by the end of 2027 than in 2019, with a queue of up to six years 52 H. In Abu Dhabi in July 2026 financing closed on a $6.1bn project: 5.2 GW of solar and 19 GWh of batteries are meant to supply 1 GW round the clock 53 M.
06 · BusinessWhat it costs a business to store energy: a megawatt-hour was $1.45m in 2010–2011 and about €350,000 in 2025
Take 1 MWh: enough for a small factory or shopping centre to run for an hour or two off-grid, or to shave daytime peaks in consumption. In 2010–2011, according to a survey of suppliers by the US Department of Energy and EPRI, commercial lithium-ion systems of 50–500 kW cost $1,174–2,285 per kWh of usable capacity, installed; the median of seven offers was $1,451 10 H. A megawatt-hour cost about $1.45m, and the batteries had to be replaced after 5–8 years 54 H.
In Germany in 2025 a review of 74 ready-made kits gave an average of €346 per kWh excluding VAT; the source does not say whether installation is included. Small systems of up to 100 kWh cost about €450, and systems of several megawatt-hours about €200 11 M, so a megawatt-hour costs €200,000–450,000 depending on size. Cabinets of 200–261 kWh without inverter and installation in a German shop in October 2026 cost €142–155 per kWh 55 L. The DTEK and Fluence grid project in Ukraine, of 200 MW / 400 MWh, costs €125–140m according to different sources, or €313–350 per kWh 56,57 M.
Despite this, of the 65 GW of solar plants that European companies installed in 2022–2024, fewer than 5% got a battery (for households, about 20%) 58 H. In Italy, when the Transition 4.0 tax support was replaced by the unpopular Transition 5.0, sales of commercial batteries fell within a year from almost 650 to 190 MWh 59 H. Payback depends not only on the price of the battery but also on tariffs: charges for peak capacity, the gap between day and night prices, the cost of downtime.
The cost of storage is best counted per kilowatt-hour that the battery delivers over its lifetime. By our calculation (300 cycles a year, a 10% discount rate), a commercial system in 2010 delivered a kilowatt-hour for about $1.2, a German one in 2025 for $0.26, and a grid-scale storage system at $125 for $0.07, excluding the cost of charging L.
Calculator: what it costs to store a kilowatt-hour
Choose a ready-made option or set your own parameters. The system cost is spread over its lifetime (the shorter of calendar life and cycle life) at the discount rate, plus 1.5% of the cost a year for maintenance; the battery loses 10% of its capacity on average. For a diesel generator, fuel only, at October 2026 prices: UAH 103.5 a litre × 0.25–0.3 litres per kWh (our calculation) 60,61 L.
In Ukraine businesses compare a battery with a generator. Diesel cost UAH 103.51 a litre in October 2026, 78% more than a year earlier 60 M; a small generator burns 0.25–0.3 litres per kilowatt-hour, so fuel alone costs UAH 26–31 per kWh (our calculation) 61 L. Energy audits cited in a column in Ekonomichna Pravda put a kilowatt-hour from an industrial generator of 100–250 kW at UAH 16–22 62 M, while the day-ahead market in March 2026 sold it at an average of UAH 7.3 without transmission tariffs 63 M.
Large Ukrainian companies installed batteries as early as 2024: by July Kyivstar had installed 115,000 four-hour batteries and 2,322 generators at its base stations 64 M. Nova Poshta planned three storage systems of 4.8 MWh by the end of 2025; the source does not say whether this is total capacity or whether the project was completed 65 M. In June 2026 the EBRD, together with UKRSIBBANK, opened €52m of new loans for distributed energy 66 H.
07 · HomeA 10 kWh home battery: about €25,000 in Germany in 2013 (in 2022 prices), $2,100–2,400 in a Ukrainian shop in 2026
For a flat or a house, take 10 kWh, a typical size for a home battery. In Germany the average system in 2022 held 8.8 kWh 67 M; in the 2025 register it was about 11 68 M. Mass-produced lithium batteries for homes appeared around 2013. According to RWTH Aachen, a kilowatt-hour of usable capacity then cost about €2,500 (in 2022 prices, excluding VAT), about €920 in 2021, and in 2022, by the university’s estimate, rose by roughly 30% because of a rush of demand and a shortage of installers 12,69 M. A buyer in 2013–2017 spent the same €10,000, but got more kilowatt-hours for it 70 M.
In 2026, according to the Verbraucherzentrale NRW index, an 8–10 kWh battery cost about €410 per kWh, depending on size €360–510 13 M. VAT on home solar systems and batteries in Germany has been 0% since 2023 71 M; at the end of 2025 the country had 2.22m storage systems, mostly domestic 72 H.
The Tesla Powerwall cost $3,000 in 2015 for a stated 7 kWh (production units had 6.4), or $429–469 per kWh without inverter and installation 73 M; the Powerwall 2, with a built-in inverter, was $407 per kWh in 2016 74 M. In the United States a home battery with installation cost an average of $1,133 per kWh in the first half of 2024, and in the first half of 2025 quoted prices rose a further 4% because of tariffs 75,76 M. In Ukraine in October 2026 a 10 kWh LFP battery sold for $212–238 per kWh 14 M; with a hybrid inverter, $360–410, which in nominal dollars is roughly the Powerwall 2 of 2016, and adjusted for inflation (US prices have risen by 40% since 2015) a quarter to a third cheaper 77 L.
Home batteries grow fastest where they are subsidised: in Australia, with a 30% discount, 184,672 batteries totalling 4.27 GWh were installed from July to December 2025 78 M. In Ukraine the two-zone (day/night) tariff gives a difference of only UAH 2.16 between a daytime and a night-time kilowatt-hour 79 M: a 10 kWh battery costing UAH 98,000 that is charged every night pays back in 12–17 years (our calculation) L. A kilowatt-hour from a battery with an inverter (excluding installation, 300 cycles a year, discount rate 10%) costs about UAH 12, and about UAH 17 if charged at the tariff: four times the grid price, but one and a half times cheaper than fuel for a generator L.
08 · SunSolar panels: the module is 89% cheaper, the rooftop system far less so
A solar module cost an average of $2.51 per watt in 2010 and $0.265 in 2024 (in 2025 prices), 89% less 15 M. In October 2026 TOPCon modules outside China were offered at an average of $0.114 per watt before taxes 80 M. New mass-produced modules in 2024 had an efficiency of 22% 81 H, against about 14% in systems installed in 2010 (the median of an American sample) 82 M. The samples differ, but the same roof can now hold about one and a half times more capacity.
The rooftop system became cheaper more slowly. According to BSW-Solar data cited by IEA PVPS, at the end of 2010 a turnkey system in Germany cost €2,771 per kW excluding VAT for systems of 2–5 kW, and roofs of up to 100 kW averaged €2,724 16 H. At the end of 2025 a 10 kW roof cost €900–1,500 per kW 83 M. That is a fall of 45–67% in nominal euros, or roughly 60–75% adjusted for inflation (our calculation) L, not 89%. The share of modules in the price of a German 10–100 kW system fell from 63% to 30% 17 M; the rest, the inverter, mounting, labour, design and margin, is much harder to cut.
In the United States a home system is still much more expensive: the median price fell from about $9 per watt in 2010 to $4.2 in 2023, both in 2023 prices (our recalculation of Berkeley Lab data) 82 L. In 2009–2013 the price fell by about $1 per watt a year 82 M; now it falls by $0.1–0.2 84 H. Since 2000, modules account for 46% of the decline, inverters for 12% and other equipment and costs for 42% 85 H. Berkeley Lab explains the gap with much cheaper Germany chiefly by the costs of sales, permitting and installation 86 M.
Scale has changed more than price. In 2025 the world installed 664 GW of solar, 57% of it in China 87 H; solar generated 2,778 TWh, against 256 TWh in 2015 88 H. According to IRENA, a grid-connected solar plant fell from $5,283 per kW in 2010 to $691 in 2024 89 H. For 2026 SolarPower Europe forecasts the first contraction of the market in more than 20 years, of 8%, to 612 GW 90 H.
09 · HouseA 150 m² house near Kyiv: an off-grid system covering 99% of its needs would have cost $170,000 in 2010 and costs $23,000 in 2026
Take a 150 m² house near Kyiv: a family of four, heated by gas or solid fuel, with an electric cooker and boiler. Assume it uses about 5,000 kWh a year (our assumption); the average EU dwelling uses 3,600 kWh 91 M, and a typical German household in 2010 used 4,000 92 H.
A kilowatt of panels in Kyiv yields 1,114 kWh a year according to PVGIS (the seller whose prices we use gets 16% less in its own calculation), but unevenly: 140 kWh in July and 27 in December 93 H. To cover the year in total, 4.5 kW of panels is enough; to cover December, at least 15.5 kW.
A battery moves energy from day to night, but not from summer to winter, so going off-grid always means an excess of panels. We modelled an off-grid system in PVGIS (EU JRC) on real weather for 2005–2023, day by day 94 H.
The 2026 prices are retail in Kyiv: a 460 W LONGi panel at $164 per kW, a 10 kW Deye hybrid inverter at $1,968, a 10.64 kWh Deye LFP battery at $176 per kWh (other sellers ask $212–238 for similar ones) 95,96,97,14 L; installation and mounting at $183 per kW of panels 98 L. The 2010 prices are German, since Ukraine had no market yet: a turnkey system excluding VAT cost €2,771 per kW for systems of 2–5 kW, €2,642 for 5–10 kW and €2,449 for 10–50 kW 16 H, of which 63% was modules 17 M; lead-acid batteries cost $150 per kWh of nameplate capacity, of which half is used 99,29 L. The 2010 prices were converted into 2026 dollars (×1.52) 77 H.
The cheapest off-grid system for 99% of needs is 27 kW of panels and 55 kWh of LFP batteries for about $23,000 installed. Its battery runs empty about 10 days a year, mostly in December (≈6 days), and also in November and January; in December the system covers 93% of needs L. At 2010 prices it would have cost $112,000 in dollars of the time, or $170,000 in 2026 dollars, 7.3 times more. The “net zero over the year” option became 7 times cheaper, from $37,500 to $5,300 L.
The cost structure has flipped. In 2010 panels made up 50% of the cost of an off-grid system, installation 29% and batteries 13%. In 2026 batteries are 41%, panels 19%, installation 22% and inverters 18% L. Panels have become so cheap that it pays to install more of them rather than buy another battery. Now space is the limit: 27 kW of modules take up about 125 m², while the roof of a 150 m² house usually holds 8–12 kW (our estimate) L. In 1995 these panels alone would have cost $241,000 in today’s dollars 15 L.
Electric heating changes everything. A heat pump for a 150 m² house uses from about 3,000 kWh a year (well insulated) to 5,500 (our extrapolation for a less well insulated one) 100 L, and December to February account for 47% of the heating season in Kyiv 101 M. To cover December at 93% off-grid, such a house needs about 75 kW of panels (more than 340 m² of modules) and 150 kWh of batteries, about $64,000 even at 2026 prices (our calculation) L. It is more sensible to keep the grid or a generator for winter: according to a study in the journal Joule, 53% of single-family homes in Europe could be fully off-grid, but only with seasonal energy storage in hydrogen 102 M.
Calculator: a solar system for your house, 2010 versus 2026
“Net zero over the year”: the panels produce over a year as much as the house consumes, winter is made up from the grid, and the battery covers one day. “Off-grid”: without the grid, the calculator goes through 70 combinations of panels and batteries modelled in PVGIS for each city and picks the cheapest one that covers the chosen share of consumption. The 2026 prices are Kyiv retail (VAT not stated), the 2010 prices are German excluding VAT, in 2026 dollars. No generator or battery replacement L.
Our estimate for 2010 is, if anything, too low: off-grid systems then cost $5.5–8 per watt 30 H, in Austria €4–9.1 103 H, while our system comes out at about $4.1 per watt. The 2026 prices come from one seller, without cables and delivery, so the real bill may be 5–15% higher (our estimate) L.
10 · UkraineBatteries as protection against outages: imports in the first five months of 2026 equal all of 2025
Ukraine’s battery story began with strikes on its power system. According to the IEA, after the attacks in spring 2024 almost two-thirds of Ukraine’s dispatchable generation was occupied, damaged or destroyed 104 H. The agency proposed a distributed system: by 2030, 24 GW of solar, 11 GW of wind and 6 GW of storage for $15.5–23bn. That costs more up front than gas plants alone ($13.4bn) but pays off over a longer horizon 105 H. On 20 January 2026 most Kyiv homes, according to the Razumkov Centre, were without light for up to 20 hours, and the grid deficit, in the president’s words, reached 7 GW 106 M.
The response shows up in customs statistics. Battery imports were $950.6m in 2024 and $1.48bn in 2025. In January–May 2026 they were $1.47bn, 3.8 times the same months of 2025; 89% came from China 107,18 M. Over the same five months, a third fewer generators were imported 108 M. Batteries appear to have begun displacing generators, although customs statistics do not separate household batteries from other kinds.
Nobody knows exactly how much storage is already running. According to SolarPower Europe, Ukraine installed 2.9 GWh of batteries in 2025, including portable power stations, making it Europe’s fourth-largest market 109 M. The Ukrainian Solar Energy Association (SEAU) puts it at more than 1 GWh 110 M, and a further 1.6–1.9 GWh in the first half of 2026 111 M. The Energy Ministry counts more than 600 MW, most likely only registered grid-scale storage 112 M. The largest project is six DTEK storage systems totalling 200 MW / 400 MWh, whose financing the US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund approved in October 2026 113 M.
Ukrenergo counts 7.3 GW of solar plants and SEAU 9.4–9.7 GW; the difference is probably unregistered systems for own consumption 114,115 M. The feed-in tariff for home systems of up to 30 kW runs to the end of 2029 116 M, but from August 2026 it pays only for output in set hours 117 M. Since 27 July 2024, generating equipment, solar and wind equipment and batteries (except low-capacity ones) have been imported free of tariffs and VAT 118 M. Households can borrow up to UAH 480,000 for them: at 0% at the start of the programme 119 M, and under the 2026 terms at 0% in the first year, 5% in the second and 7% in the third 120 M, with 20–30% of the loan principal compensated 121 M.
Electricity for households rose from UAH 0.24 per kWh in 2010 to UAH 4.32 in 2026: 17.7 times in hryvnia, 3.1 times in nominal dollars and roughly 2.1 times after adjusting for inflation 122,123 M. That is still about 30% of the average EU price (€0.283) 124 H. So a battery in a Ukrainian home pays back not through the tariff difference but through the hours of light during outages.
11 · ForecastWhat next: a storage pack could fall below $50 by the mid-2030s (our calculation), but an installed system much later
Battery price forecasts err in both directions. In 2020 BNEF expected $101 per kWh for 2023 (in 2020 dollars); the outcome was $139 (in 2023 dollars), because of dearer raw materials, lithium in particular, and inflation 125 H. In 2023 BNEF forecast $113 for 2025 and $80 for 2030; the actual figure in 2025 was $108 126 M. The IEA expects the average cost of lithium-ion batteries to fall by a further 40% between 2023 and 2030 127 H.
The hypothesis that a storage pack will cost less than $50 per kWh by 2040 looks cautious. As early as 2025 BNEF saw individual LFP storage packs at $50 and cells at $36 128 H. CRU expects the cost of LFP cells in China to fall below $40 per kWh by 2030 129 M. If the average storage pack ($70 in 2025) gets cheaper by 3–7% a year, it will drop below $50 between 2030 and 2037 (our calculation) L.
An installed system will most likely get cheaper more slowly than the pack. According to NREL, 4-hour grid-scale storage in the US cost $334 per kWh in 2024; in the central scenario it costs $279 in 2030 and $243 in 2035, and in the low scenario $147 in 2035 and $108 in 2050 130 H. So even in the optimistic scenario the system reaches today’s price of the average pack only by 2050.
Volumes will grow faster. BNEF expects 158 GW of new storage in 2026 and more than 300 GW a year by 2036 41,131 M. At COP29, 74 countries pledged to raise global storage capacity to 1,500 GW by 2030; national targets, according to Ember, so far add up to 822 GW, and about 430 GW was operating at the end of 2025 132 M. Utility-scale solar, according to IRENA, will get cheaper from $599 per kW in 2025 to about $388 in 2029 133 H. In Ukraine, SEAU expects about 3.2 GWh of new storage in 2026 111 M.
| Indicator | What we think is likely by 2030–2035 | Confidence | What could change the picture |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storage pack | Below $50 per kWh between 2030 and 2037 ($70 in 2025) | Medium | Lithium price, Chinese curbs on overcapacity, removal of the export rebate |
| Turnkey grid-scale storage | In China, below $70 per kWh; in Europe and the US, $150–250 because of tariffs and labour | Medium | US and EU tariffs, component origin rules, grid connection costs |
| Home battery | In Germany, €250–350 per kWh; in Ukraine, a battery without installation below $150 per kWh | Low | Subsidies and VAT, the hryvnia exchange rate, a tariff on Chinese batteries after martial law |
| Off-grid system for a 150 m² house | Getting cheaper by 3–5% a year; winter will still determine the size of the system | Medium on direction, low on the numbers | Sodium batteries, more efficient panels, cheap seasonal storage |
| Storage in Ukraine | Hundreds of megawatts of grid-scale storage and more than 3 GWh a year in homes and businesses while the threat of strikes lasts | Low | End of the war, tariff changes, the return of tariffs and VAT |
12 · Honesty and limitsThe strongest arguments against the thesis, and what we do not know
The strongest argument against. The −93% applies to the pack, but people buy a system. A home battery in Germany in 2026 costs about €410 per kWh: four times the average pack ($108) and almost 6.5 times the storage pack ($70) 13,1 M. A US grid-scale system with construction, according to Lazard, costs $270–365 per kWh, 3.9–5.2 times the storage pack 134 H. Systems have got cheaper more slowly: commercial batteries by 3–4 times since 2010–2011, home batteries in Germany by 3–6 times since 2013, depending on the method.
The trend is not guaranteed. Between October 2025 and January 2026 lithium more than doubled in price, storage cells rose 22% by April 2026, and storage in the US, according to Lazard, is 39% dearer than in 2020 3,4,51 M. US tariffs and the removal of China’s export rebate make batteries outside China dearer 38 M.
Batteries do not solve winter. According to Ember, solar with a battery covers 97% of constant load in Las Vegas but only 62% in Birmingham 50 H. According to DIW Berlin, to survive the worst 35-year spell without wind and sun, Europe would need about 351 TWh of long-duration storage, 7% of annual consumption 135 H.
Battery revenues are falling. In California, net revenue per battery fell from $103 per kW a year in 2022 to $53 in 2024, while capacity rose from 0.5 GW in 2020 to 13 GW. The CAISO market monitor attributes this chiefly to lower peak prices, and the growth of the fleet has so far hit frequency regulation hardest 136 M. In Germany, grid battery revenue in February 2026 was 19% lower than a year earlier 137 M.
Safety. The Moss Landing fire in January 2025 destroyed about 80% of the first phase 138 M. The failure rate per gigawatt-hour fell by 98% between 2018 and 2025 139 M, but there are tens of times more batteries.
Limits of our calculations.
- The house model is our own arithmetic. The 2026 prices come from one Kyiv seller, exclude cables and delivery, and do not state VAT. The 2010 prices are for Germany. The price of lead-acid batteries ($150 per kWh) is our estimate between two indirect benchmarks, one of which we could not verify.
- PVGIS does not account for snow, shade or panel ageing; we assumed consumption was constant through the year.
- The BNEF price series for 2011–2024 is our reconstruction: the end points are confirmed, the intermediate ones are not.
- Estimates of storage in Ukraine differ threefold, and of solar capacity by 2–2.4 GW; there is no single register.
- The data were gathered by AI research agents with web search. A separate sceptic agent checked some of the key numbers against the primary source; the rest, which rely on secondary sources or estimates, are marked M or L.
13 · QuestionsFrequently asked questions
How much cheaper have lithium-ion batteries become since 2010?
According to BloombergNEF's survey, the average lithium-ion pack fell from about $1,474 per kWh in 2010 to $108 in 2025 (in 2025 prices), a drop of 93%. Packs for stationary storage cost $70 in 2025 and for the first time became cheaper than packs for electric vehicles ($99). Installed systems have fallen more slowly: commercial storage is roughly 3–4 times cheaper than in 2010–2011, and home batteries in Germany are 3–6 times cheaper than in 2013, depending on the methodology. Between October 2025 and January 2026 lithium more than doubled in price (then fell again), and storage cells rose by 22% by April 2026.
How much does it cost to store a kilowatt-hour, for a business and for a household?
A megawatt-hour of commercial storage cost about $1.45m installed in 2010–2011; in Germany in 2025 a ready-made package costs on average about €346,000 excluding VAT. A 10 kWh home battery in Germany cost about €25,000 in 2013 (in 2022 prices, excluding VAT) and about €4,100 in 2026 (the Verbraucherzentrale NRW index); in Ukraine an LFP battery alone of 10 kWh sells for $2,100–2,400. By our calculation (300 cycles a year, a 10% discount rate), a kilowatt-hour from a 2010 commercial battery cost about $1.2, from a German system in 2025 about $0.26, and from a Ukrainian home battery with an inverter about UAH 12 plus the cost of charging.
How much does a solar system with batteries cost if it covers 99% of the needs of a 150 m² house off the grid?
For a house near Kyiv with gas heating that uses 5,000 kWh a year, the cheapest system that covers 99% of needs off-grid is 27 kW of panels and 55 kWh of LFP batteries. In 2026 it costs about $23,000 installed; at 2010 prices it would have cost about $170,000 in 2026 dollars. A grid-connected “net-zero over the year” system (4.5 kW of panels and a day's worth of battery) has fallen from $37,500 to $5,300. A house with a heat pump would need about 75 kW of panels and 150 kWh of batteries to be self-sufficient in December, roughly $64,000.
Why does an off-grid house need so many panels?
In Kyiv each kilowatt of panels yields 140 kWh in July and only 27 kWh in December. A battery moves energy from day to night and from a sunny day to a few cloudy ones, but not from summer to winter. So December requires 3.4 times more panels than the annual average, and in summer most of their energy is wasted. Panels are now so cheap that it pays to install more of them rather than buy extra batteries; the limit becomes roof space.
Does a home battery pay back in Ukraine?
On the tariff gap, no: the two-zone (day/night) tariff gives a UAH 2.16 difference between a daytime and a night-time kilowatt-hour, so a 10 kWh battery would pay back in 12–17 years. In Ukraine batteries are bought as backup for outages. A kilowatt-hour from one (with an inverter, excluding installation) costs about UAH 17 including charging at the tariff, while fuel for a diesel generator in October 2026 costs UAH 26–31 per kWh. Since July 2024 batteries and solar equipment have been imported free of duty and VAT, and households can take a subsidised loan of up to UAH 480,000 with partial compensation from the state.
14 · NextRead also
15 · SourcesSources and methodology
Each number in the text leads to its source. Labels: H — primary source (an organisation’s report, official statistics, a scientific paper, company accounts), M — secondary source, or cross-checked against several, L — an estimate, one seller’s price, a company claim or our calculation. Panel output and off-grid system modelling come from PVGIS (EU JRC), accessed on 26 October 2026; the remaining data were gathered and cross-checked by AI research agents with search. Prices are in US dollars unless stated otherwise; “in 2025 prices” means adjusted for inflation.
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- ESS News citing InfoLink — 314 Ah storage cell prices. ess-news.com M
- Trading Economics — lithium carbonate, 26 October 2026. tradingeconomics.com M
- IEA — Global EV Outlook 2026. iea.org H
- Benchmark Mineral Intelligence — global lithium-ion battery demand in 2025. source.benchmarkminerals.com M
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- BloombergNEF — Levelized Cost of Electricity 2026. about.bnef.com H
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- DTEK and Fluence — 200 MW of storage. energy-storage.news M
- ESS News — DTEK and Fluence 200 MW / 400 MWh storage (EUR 140m). ess-news.com M
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- GMK Center citing the market operator — day-ahead prices. gmk.center M
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- ISEA RWTH — average spend on a home battery, 2013–2017. zfk.de M
- Germany — zero VAT on home solar and batteries from 2023. 42watt.de M
- pv magazine citing the Marktstammdatenregister — storage in Germany. pv-magazine.de H
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- SolarQuotes citing the Clean Energy Regulator — Cheaper Home Batteries. solarquotes.com.au M
- Cabinet of Ministers — household and night tariffs. dengi.ua M
- InfoLink — solar module prices, 21 October 2026. infolink-group.com M
- Fraunhofer ISE — efficiency of commercial modules. ise.fraunhofer.de H
- Berkeley Lab — Tracking the Sun, 2018 and 2024 editions. eta-publications.lbl.gov H
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- Lirik Solar (Kyiv) — Deye 10 kW hybrid inverter price. liriksolar.com L
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- State Customs — generator imports, 2024–2026. interfax.com.ua M
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- Ministry of Energy citing Ukrenergo — 7.3 GW of solar. en.interfax.com.ua M
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- NEURC Resolution No. 1029 of 30.06.2026 — household feed-in tariff. biz.ligazakon.net M
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- UNN — launch of preferential loans for household energy equipment, July 2024. unn.ua M
- State preferential loans for household energy equipment. epravda.com.ua M
- State compensation of part of loans for generators and storage. epravda.com.ua M
- Household tariff in 2010 (24.36 kopecks). jurliga.ligazakon.net M
- Household tariff in hryvnias and dollars, 2010 and 2026 (at NBU rates). bank.gov.ua M
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